The King’s Trust: Gen(eration) AI Report

Stuart Mitchell

The King’s Trust has launched the findings of new research commissioned with Public First on the impact of AI on young people’s employment. The new economic modelling and large-scale polling has produced a detailed analysis of how AI is likely to affect young people’s place in the labour market.   

The report’s economic modelling finds the impact that AI could have in making the roles young people hold more productive would be worth up to £16 billion to the UK economy. However, the roles held by young people that are at risk of being displaced by AI, could cause the economy to lose £12 billion in output.   

The scale of change 

Gen(eration) AI finds that 55% of the jobs currently held by young people are likely to change because of AI. Most are set to be augmented, meaning some elements will be automated but they will not be lost, but 10% could be at risk of being displaced entirely. In real terms, this is around 300,000 roles.  

The highest proportion of roles at risk of displacement are in the “knowledge economy” – professional services such as IT, finance and insurance – with nearly 20% of roles at risk. A further 60% of roles are likely to be augmented. The retail sector, which offers key routes into the labour market for young people, particularly those with lower qualifications, is also likely to see high transformation.   

Young workers are highly concentrated in sub-sectors that contain jobs with automatable tasks and are therefore particularly susceptible to being displaced or augmented by AI. However, these sectors could see significant benefits from augmentation. For example, increasing productivity through AI in roles held by young people in the retail sector could add £3.7 billion value to the economy. 

Great expectations  

The report surveyed 2,000 16–25-year-olds and finds that two thirds of those polled think AI will have a major impact on jobs in the next 5 years. 39% expect changes in the use of AI to have a significant impact on their career overall and 20% say they have already changed their career choices due to the perceived effects of AI.   

44% believe AI will have a positive impact on opportunities for them, with 31% saying they have felt more confident about a career path because they think AI will help with it.  

Over a quarter (26%) of young people say they have avoided applying for a certain job or course because they think AI could replace it. The majority are also concerned that AI is likely to produce a range of negative impacts on their experience of work, including making competition for jobs more intense (71%), decreasing rather than increasing levels of pay (57%) and making it more difficult for them to progress through their career (58%). 

Young people expect AI to drive this change quickly. Two-thirds (67%) think AI will have a major impact on jobs in the next 5 years, with 25% saying this impact is already happening. 

Julia Beaumont, Chief Technology and Programmes Officer at The King’s Trust says:

As we publish Gen(eration) AI, there are nearly one million young people not in work, education or training in the UK. This report, published with Public First, is not about a distant reality of new technologies, this is a report about young people, their skills and the (very near) future world of work.
The report is clear, AI presents far more opportunities than it does threats to young people’s employment and their future careers, however the scale of change cannot be ignored. The Trust, alongside our sector peers, employer and government partners, education and training providers, must be prepared and knowledgeable to best support young people – especially those who already face disadvantage – into sustainable work.
Gen(eration) AI? 
Of the young people polled in the report, 55% of young people say they use AI tools at least once a week. They also report that AI tools are “very important” for their work (47%), studies (53%) or day-to-day life (38%).  
 
40% of those educated to degree level say they use these at least once a day for both their work and personal lives – more than twice the rate for those with Level 1 or no qualifications.  
 
76% of young people think AI will change the kind of skills their generation will require for work. A third report currently using AI for activities such as preparing for a job interview (33%), help writing their CV (38%) or job search (32%). However, only 35% say they know what employers think about applicants using GenAI for their job searches.  
 
Most young people have started using AI tools independently and “figured it out for themselves” as opposed to receiving any training from their school, college or employer. Only a third feel that institutions such as employers (33%), school and colleges (36%) or charities (31%) are doing enough to support young people with the potential impact of AI on their careers. 53% say they feel like they are being left to figure out AI and its impact on their own.  
 
Shivani H Menon, Economist, Public First says:
While developments in AI are moving at breakneck speed, the rest of the economy slowly seems to be catching up. In these uncertain times, a good litmus test of the impact of AI will be in how the labour market responds, especially among entry level jobs. Knowing exactly which jobs are most likely to be impacted, can help guide training programmes and encourage young people to improve their standing in the AI economy.
Andrew Hunter, co-founder of job matching platform Adzuna said:
The report clearly shows that AI is not just replacing jobs but could polarise the labour market, rewarding highly skilled workers, while putting immense pressure on young people entering the job market. But it’s not all doom and gloom – AI has the clear potential to stimulate job creation, improve labour market efficiency and drive productivity growth. Realising these benefits will also require the government to collaborate closely with the UK’s technology sector, which is already leading the way in applying AI to tackle labour market challenges, but also organisations which can engage and train young people furthest from the labour market.

 

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